Everyone Got the Timeline Wrong: AI, Juniors, and Quantum
Two years ago the loudest voices in tech said software engineers would be obsolete by now. They were wrong: developer employment did not collapse. But the same wave that failed to remove developers removed something else — the routine work that turned beginners into seniors. Employment of developers aged 22 to 25 is down roughly 20% since late 2022 while their older colleagues held flat or grew. Meanwhile quantum computing is running the identical hype cycle one lap behind, and the milestone that actually matters is not the one in the headlines. Here is what the evidence supports, what it does not, and how to tell the two apart.




